نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• سجاد صادقی

دکتری روابط بین‌الملل دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

بررسی رویکرد سنجی، مفهوم سنجی و الگو یابی 24 سخنرانی روسای دولت‌های جمهوری اسلامی ایران در مجمع عمومی سازمان ملل مبتنی بر تحلیل محتوای کیفی نشان‌دهنده وجود یک همگرایی و هم‌سویی در مبانی دکترین سیاست خارجی علیرغم تفاوت‌های عملکردی سیاست‌ خارجی و تفاوت جهت‌گیری در سیاست‌گذاری داخلی این دولت‌ها است. یافته‌های اصلی این پژوهش شامل گزاره‌های «استمرار تکمیلی دکترین سیاست خارجی سلطه ستیز با لحاظ کردن تغییرات متن اجتماعی بین‌الملل مبتنی بر نیازهای منافع ملی»، «جهت‌گیری تحول خواهانه در نظام‌بین‌الملل» و «تلاش برای ایجاد روند اصلاح‌گرایانه در نظام بین‌الملل» در میان دولت‌های جمهوری اسلامی ایران به عنوان جهت‌گیری اصلی در سیاست خارجی مشهود است؛ که بر این مبنای دکترین اصلی و مستمر سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران «دکترین تحول‌خواهی در نظام بین‌الملل» است. بر این اساس رفتار سیاست‌گذاران در برخورد با اتحادهای منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی و همچنین رابطه جمهوری اسلامی ایران در حوزه سیاست همسایگی و سایر روابط خارجی قابل پیش‌بینی و تحلیل می‌گردد. همه چیز در دو فرآیند «تحول‌خواهی» در مقابل «وضعیت کنونی» و «تحول‌خواهی» در تقابل با «نظام بین‌الملل کنونی» که از آن تلقی «نظام سلطه» شده است، خلاصه می‌شود. به همین دلیل سیاست خارجی مصرانه به دنبال پیوستن و عملکرد مؤثر در اتحادهایی که هدف نهایی آن‌ها تحول در نظام بین‌الملل کنونی است و در سیاست‌گذاری کلان کشور «نگاه به شرق» و «حمایت از دکترین مقاومت» به عنوان اصول مهم زیربنایی لحاظ می‌گردد؛ زیرا این روندها رویکردی تحول خواهانه در مقابل وضعیت کنونی نظام بین‌الملل سلطه محور تلقی می‌گردد. روش پژوهش به کار رفته نیز «الگو یابی مبتنی بر تحلیل محتوای کیفی استقرایی» است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آینده‌پژوهشی سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران
• تحول‌خواهی در نظام بین‌الملل
• روابط بین‌الملل ایرانی
• سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران
• نظام بین‌الملل

موضوعات

• روابط بین الملل

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling the Speeches of Iranian Presidents at the UNGA (1980–2024)

نویسنده [English]

• Sajjad Sadeghi

PhD, Department of International Relations, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Introduction
It is customary for heads of state or their delegates to deliver speeches at the opening of each regular annual session of the General Assembly, addressing the most pressing current international issues that affect their national interests. These speeches typically outline their government’s perspective on global developments and propose solutions aimed at resolving crises and promoting sustainable regional and global peace and security. Analyzing the speeches delivered by heads of state at the UNGA provides valuable insights: first, into the foundations of their view on the international order; second, into the key global issues as seen through their foreign policy lens; and finally, into their proposed actions for overcoming crises through global partnership, as articulated in official policy statements. Since 1980, when then-Prime Minister Mohammad Ali Rajaee attended the UNGA and presented the Islamic Republic of Iran’s positions on global affairs, Iranian presidents have participated in the General Assembly 24 times up to the 79th session in 2024. They have consistently used this platform to articulate the Foreign Policy Doctrine of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). This trend has been particularly notable since tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program escalated, with Iranian presidents leveraging the UNGA stage to convey the overarching principles of the IRI’s foreign policy to the international community. The relevant Persian-language studies generally examine the speeches from two main perspectives: 1) discourse analysis from a linguistic perspective, and 2) content analysis based on international relations concepts. It is worth noting that some research in the field of international relations addresses aspects of presidential speeches at the UN as part of broader studies on foreign policy. However, these works bear little relevance to the present research. When considering studies that focus specifically on individual presidents, Hassan Rouhani’s speeches have received the most attention from researchers. Overall, the existing literature shows that none of these studies is comparable to the current work in terms of scope or final approach, nor have they attempted to develop a comprehensive foreign policy model based on the policies declared by the presidents. In this respect, the present research aimed to examine the 45-year trajectory of the IRI’s foreign policy and develop a model for future research on Iran’s foreign policy behavior.
Materials and Methods
This research adopted the method of modeling based on inductive content analysis. Content analysis aims to uncover underlying linguistic meanings within a text. When applied qualitatively, this method can develop conceptual models and frameworks by systematically combining themes, indicators, and specialized metaphorical concepts. From a broader perspective, it can also identify and categorize recurring elements within the text, thereby enabling the qualitative formulation of specialized metaphors.
Results and Discussion
The analysis helped identify several common features in the foreign policy doctrine of successive IRI’s administrations. These include a negative and pessimistic perception of the great powers and a prevailing view that international organizations—particularly the United Nations and its Security Council—are ineffective and in need of fundamental reform and transformation. The international system is perceived as characterized by a continuous confrontation between two primary forces: the protectors and supporters of the status quo and the agents of change. Over the past two decades, this dynamic has gradually evolved toward what can be described as a Neo-Cold War order. The IRI’s administrations also believe that a new international order is emerging, one that is in fundamental conflict with the existing system. Given their strong desire for systemic change, they seek to define themselves as agents of change within this emerging international order. Furthermore, they regard the current international system as an unjust system of domination. Taken together, these findings indicated that the core and enduring principle of the IRI’s foreign policy is the doctrine of change-seeking within the current international system.
Conclusion
According to the findings, the fundamental principle shaping the IRI’s foreign policy framework is the concept and trend of revolutionism or change-seeking in opposition to the status quo. In the context of foreign relations and the international system, this can be defined as an approach of revolutionism against the current international order. This principle explains the consistent alignment in the foreign policy of successive administrations over the past 45 years, despite differences in domestic political orientations. Therefore, change-seeking based on the negation of the system of domination—which has evolved into change-seeking against the current international system within the IRI’s foreign policy doctrine—can be considered the foundation for the IRI’s foreign policy behavior. In this regard, two propositions can be made from the futures studies perspective. First, the foreign policy of the IRI will support any international actor, coalition—whether bilateral or multilateral—or process that contributes to altering the existing international order. Second, and in contrast, the IRI’s foreign policy will resist and oppose any trend, process, actor, or coalition within the international system that seeks to reinforce or maintain the status quo.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Change-seeking
• Foreign policy
• Iran
• Futures studies
• International system
• International relations