نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• ناصر پورحسن

دانشیار علوم سیاسی دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه آیت الله بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران.

چکیده

جنگ  غزه در سال 2023-2025 موجب احیای  ایده  تشکیل دو دولت در فلسطین شده است. این در حالی است که پیش‌تر، این موضوع از دستور کار سیاسی خارج شده بود. هدف این مقاله، امکان‌سنجی تحقق نظریه دو دولت در شرایط متحول پیش رو است. سؤال اصلی مقاله عبارت است از: «با توجه به رفتار اسرائیل از آغاز اشغال فلسطین، به‌ویژه تحولات جنگ غزه 2023-2025   آیا تشکیل دولت مستقل فلسطینی در کنار دولت یهودی اسرائیل، امکان‌پذیر است؟» فرضیه مقاله، این‌گونه صورت‌بندی شده است:«دولت سازی در سرزمین فلسطین شامل دو فرایند ناسازگار بوده است. در یک فرایند، زمینه‌های دولت سازی ایجابی برای تشکیل و تثبیت دولت اسرائیل انجام شده و در فرایند مقابل، امکان دولت سازی برای فلسطینی‌ها در حوزه‌های جمعیتی، سرزمینی،  حکومت دولت، حاکمیت و شناسایی، سلب شده و فروپاشیده است. به این دلیل تشکیل دو دولت فلسطینی و یهودی در کنار هم به‌ویژه پس از 7 اکتبر 2023 ممکن نیست». یافته‌های مقاله که با روش کیفی با  شیوه توصیفی-تحلیلی حاصل شده، نشان می‌دهد، تشکیل دولت مستقل فلسطینی در اثر فرایند ساختاری و سیستماتیک دولت پاشی اسرائیل از طریق نابودسازی جمعیتی و آوارگی فلسطینی‌ها، تصرف و تجزیه سرزمینی، ممانعت از تشکیل دولت و شناسایی بین‌المللی آن، امکان‌پذیر نیست. تجربه جنگ غزه و تقویت راست‌گرایان افراطی در اسرائیل و مواضع دولت ترامپ نیز امکان‌ناپذیری تحقق دو دولت را تشدید کرده و به این دلیل،  امکان تشکیل دولت مستقل فلسطینی در عمل وجود ندارد.       

کلیدواژه‌ها

• اسرائیل
• دو دولت
• دولت-ملت‌سازی
• دولت-ملت پاشی
• غزه
• فلسطین

موضوعات

• دولت

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Feasibility of Two States in the Land of Palestine (With a Focus on Developments After 7 October 2023)

نویسنده [English]

• Naser Pourhassan

Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction:
With the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood of 7 October and the subsequent massive and all-out Israeli attack on Gaza, then on the West Bank, South Lebanon and the spreading of the crisis in the Middle East region, the formation of an independent Palestinian state alongside the Israeli state once again became a regional agenda. It became international. Whereas before it had been almost completely off the political agenda of the Israeli government, regional actors and major world powers.
Purpose of the research:
The purpose of this article is the feasibility of realising the theory of two states in the changing conditions ahead. The main question of the article is: "In light of Israel's actions since the onset of the occupation of Palestine, particularly the developments that have transpired in the Gaza Strip during the years 2023 to 2025, the question arises as to the viability of establishing an independent Palestinian state alongside the established Jewish state of Israel.?" The article's hypothesis is formulated as follows: State-building in Palestine has involved two irreconcilable processes. In one process, the areas of positive state-building for the formation and stabilization of the Israeli state have been carried out, and in the opposite process, the possibility of state-building for the Palestinians in the areas of population, territory, government, sovereignty and recognition has been denied and collapsed. For this reason, the formation of two Palestinian and Jewish states is not possible, especially after 7 October 2023.
Methodology
The present study employs a descriptive-analytical approach in its methodological framework. The information was collected through library research, which entailed the review of scientific books and articles, as well as reports from reliable media sources, including the Al Jazeera network, in both English and Persian.
Results
This article is written within the framework of the concept of " Nation-State -building", which eventually led to the new concept of " Nation-State -destruction". According to the first article of the Montevideo Convention, an independent state is a state that has "a permanent population", "a defined territory", "an independent government" and "sovereignty" and is capable of establishing relations with other countries. In the process of more than a century in the land of Palestine, especially since the Basel Congress in Switzerland in 1897 until 2024, an unfavourable trend has occurred in the land of Palestine in the field of nation-state elements. The contradictory processes of Nation-State building in Palestine have continued and intensified in various aspects. In the field of population, the process of increasing the Jewish population has been implemented against the elimination and destruction of the Palestinian population. With the systematic migration of Jews, the majority of the Palestinian population has been displaced and the process of killing them with genocide and ethnic cleansing has continued in its various aspects. The continuous destruction of the Palestinian population in various ways and the use of conventional and non-conventional weapons, targeted killing, frequent massacres and even the use of starvation as a weapon continue. Since 7 October, 72,000 Palestinians have been killed and more than 200,000 injured, most of them permanently disabled. The inconsistency of state building and state collapse in the territorial element continues to increase. In contrast to the process of expansionism and territorial integration of Israel, the territory of the Palestinians has become smaller and more divided. According to the developments of the last 24 months, the scope of Israel's territorial expansionism has expanded within the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and even in South Lebanon and the Golan Heights.
The 364 square kilometer territory of Gaza is divided into four regions. Settlement construction is not only in the West Bank, where an increase of one million people is planned; It will also spread to the Gaza Strip Again The inadequacy of state building is more tangible in the field of administrative-organizational organizations. Since the Jews immigrated to Palestine in the late 19th century, by creating military militias such as The Palmach, Irgun, and Stern, they created a strong military force, and with the direct and indirect aid of the United States, they have become one of the strongest military forces. While labeling any Palestinian military force as a terrorist, it has prevented the creation of a military force as a prerequisite for the government in Palestine. In the economic field, Israel has controlled the resources of the Palestinians, especially the water resources, in various ways, and has placed them under siege and severe dependence in terms of economic structure by capturing Jerusalem and declaring it as the eternal and indivisible capital of Israel, it has practically made the idea of forming a Palestinian state impossible
By destroying all the infrastructures of life, from houses and roads to water sources and agricultural fields, Israel has destroyed all the infrastructures of the formation of a state in Palestine. During the recent war in Gaza, all the buildings in the Gaza Strip were razed to the ground and even the streets of the cities of the West Bank were ploughed up. While the effort to recognize the Israeli government continues through various methods, from the sale of arms to the influence of Jewish lobbies in America, by depriving Palestinian political identities such as the self-governing organizations of their sovereignty, against the recognition of the Palestinian government by other countries. It has resisted a lot.
Conclusion
Despite the insistence of some Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, that the normalisation of relations with Israel depends on the formation of an independent Palestinian state, as well as international efforts, especially at the level of the United Nations General Assembly, and the recognition of the Palestinian state by some European countries, the realisation of the theory of two states in the land of Palestine will be practically impossible. The increase in the political and military power of the religious Zionists in Israel (especially the right-wing government ministers and Knesset representatives), as well as the density of hatred and disgust between the Israelis and the Palestinian people towards each other during the 2023-2025 war, as well as the coming to power of the most anti-Palestinian government in the second term of Trump's presidency, the United States makes the formation of an independent Palestinian state practically impossible.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Israel
• Two States
• Nation-State Building
• Nation-State destruction
• Gaza
• Palestine