نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• امیر بهزاد صادقی ¹
• داود غرایاق زندی ²

¹ دکتری روابط بین‌الملل دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

² استادیار علوم سیاسی دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در سال­های اخیر و با کاهش فاصله­ی ناآرامی­های بزرگ در کشور، لزوم بررسی ریشه­ای ناآرامی­ها به ضرورتی اجتناب‏ناپذیر تبدیل شده است. از آنجا که توصیف یک دورنما برای آینده، نیازمند شناخت گذشته و روندهای موجود در آن است؛ بررسی روند شکل‏گیری ثبات/بی­ثباتی در چهار دهه گذشته اهمیتی چشمگیر می­یابند. پژوهش­هایی که تا به امروز صورت پذیرفته­اند، فرآیند شکل­گیری ثبات/بی‌ثباتی نظام سیاسی را مورد تأکید قرار نمی‏دهند. از سوی دیگر، شناسایی «پیشران­های بحران‏ساز» می­تواند پایه­ای برای تعریف یک «دورنما» برای ثبات نظام سیاسی کشورمان در سال­های میانی دهه پنجم، بر اساس آینده­های ممکن باشد. در راستای نگارش دورنما، پرسش اصلی پژوهش حاضر این است که با توجه به الگوی ثبات/بی­ثباتی در چهار دهه گذشته، کدام‏یک از سناریوهای خوش‏بینانه، بدبینانه و خنثی در ارتباط با ثبات نظام جمهوری اسلامی ایران احتمال وقوع بیشتری دارد. فرضیه­ پژوهش برای پاسخ به پرسش این است که الگوی شکل‏گیری ثبات/بی­ثباتی در چهل سال­ گذشته، نشان از کاهش امکان حل بحران­ها و برعکس، سرریز شدن آن‌ها در پایان دهه چهارم دارد که می­تواند به دورنمایی چون هم­افزایی بحران­ها و نیل به بی­ثباتی سیاسی، حرکت کند. این پژوهش، در ابتدا با روند پژوهی حوادث بحران‎ساز چهار دهه گذشته به عنوان داده­های کیفی آغاز و با استخراج شاخص­های بحران‏ساز چهار دهه گذشته، پیشران­ها، سد کننده‌ها و کارت­های شگفت‏انگیز جهت سناریونویسی بر اساس آینده­های ممکن به دست آمدند که با توجه به تأثیر هم‏افزایانه بحران­ها بر یکدیگر و عدم اقبال به اصلاحات ساختاری از جانب حکومت، امکان وقوع سناریوی بدبینانه محتمل­تر به نظر آمد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آینده‏‌پژوهی
• ثبات سیاسی
• جمهوری اسلامی ایران
• سناریونویسی
• روند پژوهی

موضوعات

• توسعه و امنیت

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Outlook for Political Stability in the Islamic Republic of Iran: Patterns and Trends (1979–2019)

نویسندگان [English]

• Amir Behzad Sadeqi ¹
• Davoud Gharayagh-Zandi ²

¹ Ph.D. student, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Economic and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

² Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Economic and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Introduction
The Islamic Republic of Iran entered its fifth decade in 2020, with its first four decades marked by numerous destabilizing incidents that challenged its stability both domestically and internationally. Social changes have rooted in those destabilizing incidents. Current crisis management agencies have proven ineffective in preventing overlapping crises. Those policies have addressed social changes; recurring destabilizing challenges suggest limited effectiveness. Some Islamic Republic discourse’s principles, such as (Independence, Islamic Revolution Export, Velayat-e-Faqih, Islamic Ideal Society, Usury-free Banking, and Jihadi Management, etc)) In accordance with relevant constitution principles have been crystallizing as; revisionist foreign policy, Axis of Resistance reinforcement and Iranian-Islamic Progress Idle have been some policies implemented for more than the past 45 years. In the aftermath of the twelve-day war and amid the increasingly frequent recurrence of closely spaced episode large-scale unrest in recent years, a systematic analysis of the underlying causes of instability and the role of political-social crises have become imperative. However, studies conducted to date do not adequately illustrate the process through which stability or instability in the political system has been formed. As outlining a future outlook requires an understanding of the past and the trends embedded within it, examining the process of stability and instability formation over the past four decades gains particular importance.
Materials and Methods
Research methodology was a combination of post-event research and future studies. Perspective of a regime’s stability ought to be based on possible futures and present a holistic view. That’s why each holistic view about the future must contain three levels of analysis, which include internal, regional, and international. This research employs future studies, whether in trend surveys or in scenario writing, to highlight the necessity of a comprehensive approach. Data were collected through library research and internet sources using an inductive method, then analyzed to identify patterns of social changes over four decades. The study also examines regime responses to challenges across four decades, analyzing them in ten-year segments. This enables comparative analysis across time periods using specific variables. Ultimately, based on the four-decade trend survey, drivers, blockers and wild cards will be determined scenario writing. There are three scenarios named as optimistic, pessimistic and neutral. In this regard, the main question of the research is whether, considering the regime’s stability pattern over the past four decades, which of the optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral scenarios might occur. The hypothesis is its perspective would be based on a pessimistic scenario in which dormant crises would synergize during the fifth decade due to the degradation.
Results and Discussion
The crisis indicators have had a direct relationship with social changes and have challenged the stability status of the regime during the last decades. Among the crisis indicators that led to social changes, the followings have more important and can be mentioned here:1) Economic mismanagement and Corruption. 2) Society Islamization and Lifestyle Assimilation. 3) Ethnic demands and Regime responses. 4) Factional clashes and lack of Dispute resolution. 5) Anti-arrogance against the West’s Responses. 6) Anti-Israel doctrine and Israeli responses. 7) Islamic Revolution Export Policy and Regional Responses. 8) Environmental challenges and water scarcity. 9) Electoral Integrity Disputes. 10) Intra-factional conflict. 11) Judicial-security role in handling security cases. 12) Restrictive Press and media laws.
These drivers have faced Islamic Revolution discourse and the institutions that originated from that discourse for more than 40 years, leading to destabilizing challenges that resulted in seven socio-political crises. During past four decades, Occurrence of crises such as; ((Distribution)), ((Penetration)), ((Participation)), ((Identity)), ((Legitimacy)), ((Regional)) and ((International)) have been affecting the political system's stability. The fate of these crises played a decisive role in determining the stability of the system in each particular decade.
Ultimately, from following ((crisis indicators)) to ((destiny of crises)), it could result in a base to define a perspective about the political system status in the mid years of the fifth decade.
Today, any crisis within administrative, financial, ideological, or judicial sub-systems threatens the regime's efficiency and legitimacy comprehensively. Since the seven socio-political crises play a prominent role in the stability of political systems, the fate of such crises is interrelated to each other significantly.  After crises emerge, political systems may move toward one of three possible fates: 1) Political Stabilization and Legitimacy Improvement: In this fate, the regime is either favorable in terms of efficiency or attractive and powerful in terms of discourse and propaganda. However, most crises generally do not form or resolve by civil-martial institutions. 2) State of Dormancy: Despite the regime's lack of institutional efficiency, it retains strong ideological or propaganda tools. Crises are temporarily contained but may be reactivated upon new destabilizing challenges. 3) Crises Synergism towards Political Instability: When multiple challenges are not adequately addressed (in the context of ineffective regime responses), various crises interact and intensify, leading to system inefficiency and increasing instability.
Conclusion
Investigating the crisis indicators during the last four decades of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s lifetime suggests a trend toward a pessimistic scenario named as crises synergy towards political instability in the upcoming decade. The various socio-political crises that occurred during the same time show the most important crisis indicators include: Society Islamization and Lifestyle Assimilation, Economic mismanagement and Corruption, Ethnic demands and Regime response, Anti-arrogance against the West’s Response, Anti-Israel doctrine and Israeli response, Islamic Revolution Export Policy and Regional Responses, Environmental challenges and water scarcity. Such crisis indicators might synergize predictably, so that the regime’s stability is suddenly questioned. Consequently, the hypothesis posits that the synergizing of dormant crises during the fifth decade will likely exacerbate instability, especially without significant structural reforms within the regime. Overall, the Islamic Republic’s stability perspective suggests that, due to socio-political crises during the fifth decade, a fragile stability status will likely be inevitable.
However, the effectiveness of the regime’s responses in addressing destabilizing challenges has been extensive, and further research is suggested to analyze these outputs in more detail. The findings suggest that while these responses have been evaluated for their efficiency in addressing challenges, their effectiveness can vary significantly. Therefore, additional research is needed to explore these outputs.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Islamic Republic of Iran
• Political Stability
• Future Studies
• Trend Survey
• Scenario Writing