نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• ابوالفضل دلاوری ¹
• نگار قنواتی ²

¹ دانشیار علوم سیاسی دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

² دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

تحلیل علّی لایه‌بندی‌شده یک رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی است که در آن، وضعیت و آینده‌های احتمالی‌ پدیده‌ها در چهار لایه رویدادی (لیتانی)، ساختاری، گفتمانی و استعاری مورد مطالعه قرار می‌گیرد. مفروضه مقاله این است که مهمترین شرط‌ پژوهش‌های علمی تناسب روش شناسی با هستی شناسی است. به عبارت دیگر روش منتخب باید با ویژگی‌های موضوع پژوهش تناظر و تناسب داشته‌باشد. مقاله به این سوال پرداخت که آیا روش تحلیل علی لایه‌بندی‌شده برای آینده‌پژوهی دولت مناسب است؟ مقاله براساس آثار مبدع این روش (سهیل عنایت‌الله) به صورتبندی این روش و کاربرد‌ها و دستاوردهای آن پرداخته‌است؛ سپس به ویژگی‌های هستی‌شناختی دولت، به ویژه در شکل‌های امروزین آن اشاره کرده و سرانجام با استفاده از روش قیاسی تناسب این را برای برای مطالعه دولت مورد بحث قرار داده و به این نتیجه رسیده که این روش به دلیل تناظری که با سرشت پیچیده و چندلایه دولت دارد بیش از هر روش دیگری برای آینده‌پژوهی دولت مناسب است. با استفاده از این رویکرد می‌توان کارکردهای روزمره (لایه لیتانی)، ترتیبات نهادی (لایه ساختاری)، مبانی مشروعیت (لایه گفتمانی) و بنیان‌های اسطوره‌ای (لایه استعاری) دولت را مورد بررسی و تحلیل قراردا و آینده‌های احتمالی آن را شناسائی کرد. البته چون این روش بیشتر بر سویه‌های تحلیلی متمرکز است و سویه‌های هنجاری و تجویزی چندانی ندارد‌ برای آینده پژوهی دولت نیازمند تکمیل است. استفاده همزمان از دیگر روش‌های آینده پژوهی نظیر سناریو سازی، تحلیل تأثیر بر روند، تحلیل الگوها و تحلیل چرخه‌های آینده می‌تواند به تکمیل و بهینه‌سازی این روش در آینده‌پژوهی دولت کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آینده پژوهی
• دولت
• روش
• تحلیل علی لایه بندی شده

موضوعات

• جامعه شناسی سیاسی

عنوان مقاله [English]

A Methodology for State Studies: Assessing the Appropriateness of Causal Layered Analysis for Futures Studies of the State

نویسندگان [English]

• Aboulfazl Delavari ¹
• Negar Ghanavati ²

¹ Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran

² Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Department of Political Science, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Introduction
The state, as one of the most sophisticated social phenomena, has been a central focus of philosophers and scholars for centuries. From ancient times to the present, philosophical reflections and empirical research have produced an extensive and rich body of literature on the nature, typology, structures, functions, and evolution of the state. Despite numerous forward-looking studies—whether examining the state as a general form of social organization or in its various manifestations across different societies and countries—it remains a vital area of inquiry that has consistently been on the research agenda. However, the related studies have largely adhered to conventional scientific approaches, such as positivism and interpretivism. While these methods have yielded valuable insights, they are often doomed to have been heavily influenced by ideological tendencies or theoretical preferences, leading to results that are not always accurate and desirable. As a different line of inquiry, the present research aimed to assess the appropriateness of causal layered analysis (CLA) for future studies of the state, hoping to capture its complex dimensions, characteristics, and transformations. As an effective analytical method, CLA has gained popularity in the Iranian scholarly community in recent years. However, the related studies sometimes display misunderstandings and oversimplifications in both the introduction and application of the method.  In some cases, the ontological and methodological distinctions between the four layers of CLA are not properly considered, and the method is neither accurately presented nor applied. There are also instances where CLA is mentioned only in the title, while other methods are used in the body of the research. To address these shortcomings, the present study aimed to introduce CLA, highlight its distinct features and capabilities compared to other approaches in future studies and demonstrate its suitability for future studies of the state. The main research question is, how suitable is CLA for future studies of the state? The study also sought to address three sub-questions as follows:  What are the components and techniques of CLA? How does CLA differ from other methods in future studies? And what capacities does CLA offer for future studies of the state?
Materials and Methods
As a descriptive inquiry, the current study intended to provide a detailed explanation of CLA, while also exploring the general characteristics of contemporary states. Additionally, it examined the appropriateness of applying CLA to futures studies of the state. The data was collected from scientific documents, including books and articles, and analyzed through an inferential approach.
Results and Discussion
CLA was proposed to address the inadequacies of both evidential and interpretive approaches. It is based on the premise that human and social phenomena are highly complex, requiring at least four layers of investigation for a comprehensive understanding. The first layer, known as the litany, consists of the surface-level, everyday aspects of these phenomena, manifested in tangible dimensions and quantitative data. The second layer (the structural or systemic) covers more stable and general factors, including institutions, arrangements, and socioeconomic and political relations. The third is the discourse layer involving dominant worldviews and mentalities. Finally, the fourth layer (myths/metaphors) concerns the unconscious rooted in archetypes and myths. In CLA, each of these layers should be examined using a method appropriate to its nature. The first and second layers, being more objective, require objective data, quantitative methods, and statistical or structural analysis. In contrast, the third and fourth layers, which are more subjective, require qualitative data, interpretive strategies, and semantic analyses. Addressing all four dimensions and layers simultaneously, CLA has a great capacity for understanding both the current status and the objective and subjective factors influencing states' future, whether in general or within specific societies. The method offers a key advantage by encouraging researchers to move beyond one macro narrative to several different narratives, leading to a deeper and more reliable understanding of complex, multi-layered phenomena like political systems and states.
Conclusion
The application of CLA can offer valuable insights into the state's direction, trends, and prospects. However, this method primarily addresses broad prospective studies and lacks specific techniques and tools for depicting accurate scenarios of possible, probable, and preferable futures. To address this gap, it is essential to use complementary methods such as retrospection, morphology, and trend research, in conjunction with future thinking techniques like driver analysis, visioning, and scenario building.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• State studies
• Methodology
• futures studies
• Causal layered analysis
• Litany
• Structure
• Discourse
• Metaphor