نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• ابوالفضل دلاوری

استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی

چکیده

چکیده
در دهه­های اخیر بی‌ثباتی­­های سیاسی به‌دلیل فراوانی­، آثار و پیامدهایشان به کانون توجه دولت­ها و پژوهشگران تبدیل شده­اند. در ایران نیز طی سال‌های اخیر مطالعات و پژوهش‌های قابل ملاحظه­ای در این‌‌باره آغاز شده است. با این وجود، مطالعات ایرانی هنوز چندان از حد کلیات و یا اقتباس مفهوم‏سازی­ها و مدل­های قدیمی فراتر نرفته است. این مقاله بر این مفروض استوار است که هرگونه مطالعه و پژوهش روشمند، دقیق و راهگشا در مورد این موضوع، نیازمند مواجهه‌ی انتقادی با ادبیات موجود و بازاندیشی در مفاهیم، شاخص­ها و ابزارهای سنجش و تحلیل بی‌ثباتی سیاسی است. این مقاله همین هدف را در مورد ابعادِ توصیفیِ بی­ثباتی سیاسی دنبال کرده است؛ در این مقاله مفهوم‌سازی­ها، شاخص­­ها و مدل­های موجود، مورد نقد و ارزیابی قرار گرفته و سعی گردیده بر اساسِ تحولات اخیر جهانی و هم‌چنین تجربیات بومی، مفهوم‌سازی و شاخص‌سازی روشن‌تر و کارآمدتری برای سنجش بی­ثباتی سیاسی ارائه شود. در انتها نیز بیان می‌گردد که در سنجش بی‌ثباتی سیاسی لازم است متغیرهای ذهنی (نظام ادراکات سیاسی و فرهنگ سیاسی جوامع موردِ مطالعه) و ابعاد تاریخی (پیشینه‌ها و تجربیات سیاسی مردم و دولت‌ها) هم‌چنین گونه­های جدید رویدادهای بی­ثبات کننده (که به‌ویژه نتیجه فرآیندهایی چون جهانی شدن، رسانه­ای شدن و مجازی شدن سیاست هستند) مورد توجه قرار گیرند. مدل پیشنهادی این مقاله برای سنجش بی‌ثباتی با توجه به چنین یافته‌ها و ملاحظاتی تنظیم شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• مفهوم‌سازی
• شاخص‌سازی
• بی‌ثباتی سیاسی
• چالش سیاسی
• دگرگونی سیاسی
• خشونت سیاسی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Introduction to Political Instability: Towards a Comprehensive and Updated Model

نویسنده [English]

• Abolfazl Delavari

Assistant Professor, Department of political science, Allame Tabataba’i University,

چکیده [English]

Purpose: Political instability is an issue that has always been attracted attention rulers and scholars. in recent decades to research on this subject has been developed. In Iran, the studies and researches on this topic are increasingly expending. However, this studies and research are not yet accurate and methodically adequate. In additional, descriptive and explanatory theoretical framework or model that applied in this research are very old and inappropriate. For example, in most of these studies Saunders model used to belong to 197o. However, in recent decades has been occurred Significant changes in the socio - political sphere and patterns of political instability in the world. In addition, after revolutionary Iran's political opening and complicated political conflicts have increased the need for this type of studies. This paper is based on the premise that systematic and exact study of political instability require critical encounter with existing literature and to rethink the concepts, indicators, model and tools of measurement and analysis. Therefore the purpose of this article is to describe aspects of political instability.
Design/Methodology/Approach: In this article in one hand criticized the concepts and indicators of political instability based on the inductive model (Ideal Type of political stability and instability). On the other hand, attempted to provide clarified concepts and useful indicators for assessing political instability based on the evidences of recent changes in the internal and external political environment. Therefore, in this Article we useful both axiomatic and Quasi experimental Methods.
Findings: In this article, distinction political instability from synonym concept and categories such as political dynamic, political changes, political disorder, and political collapse. This article shows that a comprehensive and updated descriptive model of political instability must to be contains not only the indicators of of challenges and changes in Government and political regime but also political leaders and actors Such as rapid changes in political norms, attitudes and policies. Also in this model political instabilities have been separated and classified based on criteria such as type (violent or nonviolent), source (internal or external of polity or country) and target (structures or norms or actors or policies) of destabilizing evidences. And in measurement of level and dimensions of political instability we must attention on severity, extent. and frequency of destabilizing events.
Originality/Value: This article concluded that political instability has both objective and subjective aspect. In measuring and explaining of political instability we must consider both of objective factors (such as political perceptions and culture, historical backgrounds and experiences of the political actors) and subjective factor (such as socio economic cleavage and political conflict) . We also must consider the changes and processes such as globalization, virtualization and mediatization of politics.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Political instability
• conceptualization
• Indicator construction
• political challenge
• political change
• Political violence