نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• رضا رحمتی

استادیار علوم سیاسی دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران

چکیده

نگاهی به سبد رأی حزب دست راستی «دموکرات­های سوئد» نشان­دهنده سیر صعودی این حزب به سمت کسب آرا بیشتر بوده است. مسئله اساسی در اینجا چیستی، چرایی و چگونگی جهش سیاسی و انتخاباتی حزب دست راستی دموکرات سوئد و موفقیت این حزب به‌عنوان «حزب حامی» دولت دست راستی ائتلافی در این کشور است. هدف پژوهش: مطالعات در خصوص گرایش­های مختلف سیاسی، اقتصادی، فرهنگی احزاب راست در اروپا کمتر به استراتژی­های رفتاری این احزاب توجه داشته است. بنابراین ضرورت تحقیق بر روی تأثیر انتخاب‌های استراتژیک این احزاب در شکل­دهی به ائتلاف­های انتخاباتی و رفتار سیاسی حائز اهمیت است. سؤال: سؤالی که در خصوص رفتار انتخاباتی این حزب مطرح می­شود این است که استراتژی و رفتار حزبی حزب دموکرات سوئد چیست؟ یافته­‌های پژوهش: حزب دموکرات سوئد از جمله احزاب راست اروپا محسوب می­شود که مطالعه بر روی رفتار انتخاباتی آن نسبت به مهاجرت، جرم و جنایت، بحران­های اقتصاد داخلی و ... ، هم نقشه سیاسی حزب در آینده و هم هندسه شکلی و محتوایی قدرت در سوئد را مشخص می­کند. نتیجه­گیری پژوهش: با مرور مبانی و اصول کلی و بنیادین ایدئولوژیک و متدولوژیک حزب دموکرات سوئد، این پژوهش به این نتیجه می­رسد که پنجره­های فرصتی شبیه به مهاجرت، بیکاری، جرم و جنایت، ساختار سیاسی و مشارکتی و درنهایت حقارت­های سیاسی ناشی از دشواره­های اجتماعی، به‌مرور استراتژی رفتار حزب دموکرات سوئد را تغییر داده و سبب تثبیت و انتخاب استراتژی خط­مشی جویی توسط حزب دموکرات سوئد شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• دموکرات سوئد
• رفتار حزبی
• مهاجرت
• اسکاندیناوی
• انتخابات
• رأی

موضوعات

• روابط بین الملل

عنوان مقاله [English]

Factors Affecting the Change in the Strategies of Sweden Democrat Party Behavior

نویسنده [English]

• Reza Rahmati

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

چکیده [English]

Sweden is the latest European democracy to engage with the extreme right, which regularly seeks to capture the elections and the ballot box. The change of Sweden's politics to the right has destroyed or at least distorted the image of this country as the spiritual home of the liberal left or social democracy and People’s Home. Therefore, Sweden, compared to other European countries, does not experience a long-standing tradition of representing a far-right party in the parliament, and until recently it was described as a European exception without far-right parties in the parliament (Demker, 2012).
Concerns about the increase in power of the right-wing parties have led to the creation of extremist approaches in Sweden (Rytgren, 2019: 439-455). Most of these concerns can be attributed to the influence of "Sweden Democrat". With the parliamentary progress and the rapid electoral growth of Sweden Democrat since 2010, the mainstream narrative and Swedish policies have changed both in the social forces and among the parties. The Sweden Democrat party, which until a decade ago was labeled as a political trend with negative characteristics (negative towards democracy) (and struggled with the efforts of other Swedish parties to be isolated), Now it is considered one of the most important and active forces in the sphere of Swedish politics. The Sweden Democrat now act as a group and party supporting the center-right government consisting of the Moderate conservative party (M), the Christian Democrat (K) and the Liberal party (L). Now the Sweden Democrat are the second party after the veteran Social Democrat and the largest party in the right bloc. In addition, this party, with the intelligence of its leaders, has shown itself as the party supporting the centrist government led by Ulf Kristersson. The conclusion of the Tido Agreement, which was established with the understanding of all the members of the coalition, is considered to a great extent to indicate the change of the political scene in Sweden in favor of the right-wing of this party.
Anti-immigration, anti-Muslims, trying to socialization of refugees, dealing with environmental issues, the party's approach to crime, the party's attitude to economic issues, unemployment, etc. cause a different view of Swedish politics.
However, despite the fact that the leaders of the party did not take power or ministerial positions and political positions, the performance of the party has highlighted another strategy other than seeking power. The question that arises is, what is the strategy of party behavior of the Sweden Democrat?
By reviewing the general and fundamental ideological and methodological principles of the Sweden Democrat, this hypothesis is investigated that windows of opportunity like immigration, unemployment, crime, political and cooperative structure, and political humiliations caused by Social problems have gradually changed the behavior strategy of the Sweden Democrat and caused the consolidation and selection of the policy-seeking strategy by the party of Sweden Democrat.

Conceptual framework; Party strategies

Regarding Kaare Strøm, in the division regarding party behavior, he distinguishes three categories: 1) power seeking; 2) policy seeking; 3) vote seeking. In this research, an attempt is made to pay attention to this conceptual tradition.

1. Power seeking; Power seeking strategies of parties concentrate their control on political power concessions. It means private goods that belong exclusively to those who achieve political or government positions. Therefore, these privileges maximize the position of political power. Another point of power-seeking parties is that these parties are "mainly derived from governing coalitions in parliamentary democracies" (Leiserson 1968; Riker 1962). Strøm believes that "(coalition type) political parties only seek to increase the certainty point of winning"; because in his view, "this victory in coalition parliamentary democracies includes control over the executive branch or any other possible branch, and the power-seeking behavior follows these goals" (Strøm, 2010: 5).
2. Policy-seeking; the second pattern of party behavior is policy-seeking behavior, which seeks to maximize influence on public policy. Riker shows that if the parties are "policy seeking", the goal is to take control of the executive body to make changes or apply the desired policies. Therefore, governments should include only enough parties to ensure majority support in parliament (Riker, 1962).

The formation of minority coalition governments is placed in this format. In this strategy, the party decides to seek the greatest impact (role and influence) on the decision-making system, independent of political positions and holding executive power. This type of behavior can be seen especially in multi-party coalition systems. Especially in systems where the distance between the first party and other parties is greater and it is not possible to achieve a maximum of 50+1 votes and formation of government, and parties are forced to form alliances with other parties. In such a situation, the coalition parties, by creating the "give the power-take the decision" equation, avoid taking power in order to apply their policies and policies behind the scenes and as sources of decision-making. De Swaan expresses this pattern as follows: "Policy considerations form the most important part in the minds of activists ... In fact, the parliamentary game is about determining the main policy of the government" (De Swaan, 1973: 88).

3. Vote Seeking; the third model is the vote seeking party model. In Downs’s primary effect on electoral competition, parties seek to maximize their electoral support to control government. In Downs' famous formulation, "parties set policies to win elections instead of winning elections to set policies" (Downs 1957: 28). Based on this insight, Downs strengthens his argument as follows: "Politicians... are motivated by the desire for power, prestige, and income... their primary goal is to be elected [in order to gain office public]. This means that each party seeks to receive more votes than any other party (Downs, 1957:30-1).
Party family of the Sweden Democrat party

In general, there is a consensus that the Sweden Democrat party is no longer a single-issue party. Their recent manifesto for the 2018 elections, in addition to immigration, covers a wide range of issues such as health care, housing, social cohesion, crime and crime, the labor market, research and education, culture and more (Sverigedemokraterna, 2018).

Strategic turn of the Sweden Democratic Party
1. Immigration and electoral jump of Sweden Democrat

Despite the multicultural efforts of the Social Democratic Party of Sweden, it seems that the political and social structure of the Swedish society does not consider immigration as a resolved issue and a part of everyday Swedish social life. One of the reasons for the emergence of Sweden Democrat should be considered this issue. The vast literature produced by right-wing parties that Sweden faces great challenges from immigrants confirms this. For example, some Swedish analysts believe that "the wave of refugees and asylum seekers who entered the country in 2015 (mainly Afghans or Syrians) have had a destabilizing effect on Swedish society”. Linking the issue of immigration with organized crime has been done for this reason.
This literature and more than that has led to the formation and definition of a new political structure in Sweden by right-wing parties. A look at the most recent basic program of the Sweden Democrat party in 2011, and the analysis of the content of the party's statements show a move towards a completely cultural nationalism (Elgenius, 2017: 353-358). Emphasis on elements of "national identity", emphasis on "definition of the nation based on Swedish identity, language and culture" are among these examples. The party now explicitly states that those born in other parts of the world can become Swedish, or at least "integrate into the Swedish nation". "In order for people born abroad to become members of the Swedish nation, they must speak Swedish fluently, see themselves as Swedish, live according to Swedish culture, and feel more loyal to Sweden than any other nation" (Sverigedemokraterna, 2011: 15).
Paying attention to the ballot box changed the harsh and racist approach of the party in the late 1990s. The more the party moves away from its racist approach, the more it approaches the anti-Islamic approach (Rahmati, 2023: 57-79).

2. Economic Rapture in Sweden and the electoral rise of the Sweden Democrat

Sweden, which in a long period of more than half a century with the universal welfare state and economic equality, high social advantages, social costs, social equality, correct redistribution system, high productivity, public trust and high social capital, human development, economic transparency, Social security and... had been branded (Rahmati, 2021: 195-235), in a period of witnessing the privatization of hospitals, schools, kindergartens, organizations for the elderly, care homes for disabled or disabled people. This issue has caused the idea of "the most equal country in the world" and the "universal welfare state" to change in the cognitive and mental perspective of Swedish citizens. An issue that has led to a significant increase in the level of social and economic inequality in this country, and finally, the feeling of inequality has caused a break in the main idea of "the people's home".
At the same time when this break was created, the most important political force to take advantage of this situation was the political force that rhetorically opposed the Social Democratic Party's inability to protect the "people's home". Therefore, the Sweden Democrat considered the Social Democratic Party as the main factor in creating a vast atmosphere of economic insecurity and believed that the leaders of the Social Democrat have reached a dead end in responding to Sweden's problems and that a new political force is needed. Therefore, the Sweden Democrat were the most successful political force. Therefore, "every job loss caused by the economic crisis was converted into half a vote for the Sweden Democrat". The loss of jobs was also done rapidly in the years after 2010.

3. Crime in the ballot box of the Sweden Democratic Party

The Sweden Democrat party, by mixing issues similar to immigration and violent gangs and issuance of armed crimes, has been able to gain significant votes. The Sweden Democrat party has recently faced heavy media coverage regarding the increase in murders by gangs, and the inability of the Social Democrat party to control violent and criminal gangs, many of which are represented both in immigrant communities and in It introduces marginalized communities, etc., has been able to present the inability of social Democrat as the main cause of crime in public and create a political earthquake in Sweden. The statements published in the media which show the efforts of the Sweden Democrat to attribute the issue of crime to the both two factors of the inefficiency of the Social Democratic party and the issue of immigration show that the Sweden Democrat party has changed the issue of increasing crime to The title is used as a window of opportunity for the strategy of party behavior.
Moreover, the party has strengthened its voter base by increasing its obsession with crime, unemployment, and the economic crisis on the one hand and linking these with anti-immigrants (Asbrink, 2022). In this regard, the formation of debates and discussions in the social environment of Sweden regarding the increase of surveillance and security measures, similar to the increase of surveillance cameras and the employment of security guards, has been one of the measures.

4. Every disappointment, a loyalty to the Sweden Democrat

Part of the origin of the vote of the Sweden Democrat party was rooted in political humiliation. People who have been attracted to the Sweden Democrat for various reasons have felt political inferiority during the last 20 years and have always seen themselves under suspicion or feeling stigmatized: this party, in addition to becoming a capacity for It has attracted the vulnerable, due to the creation of a romantic atmosphere of social rejection by those who for any reason did not invite their dependents to the party or fired them from their jobs, it also caused more loyalty. In other words, a large part of the vote base of Sweden Democrat is among the socially, economically and politically excluded.

The 2022 elections and the methodological turn of the Sweden Democrat party towards a policy-seeking strategy

Based on the developments after the 2022 elections, the general strategy of the Sweden Democrat party can be defined as "give power, take resources". Here, power means ministerial positions and resources means policy making. To put it better, the Democratic Party did its best to put the general and fundamental ideological principles of the party in the form of the Tido Agreement. In October 2022, four Swedish right-wing parties (Conservatives, Christian Democrat, Liberals, and Sweden Democrat) formed a government whose most important principles are anti-immigration, fighting crime and organized crime, right-wing economic approaches, high energy prices, the war in Ukraine (Nilsson, 2022: 622-634).

Towards a power-seeking strategy?

The change of direction to the power-seeking strategy depends on several elements and factors, however, one of the most important factors in determining the current strategic situation of this party is the efficiency of the vote-seeking strategy and the consequences of the policy-seeking strategy. Therefore, it is not unlikely that the successive successes of the Sweden Democrat party will lead this party to the transition to the strategy of seeking power and obtaining ministerial positions. However, the fact that this party was in the opposition and did not take political responsibility helped it to increase its share of votes in three consecutive elections. The question is, will this story continue now that it can answer the government's policies as one of the supporting parties? (Jungar, 2022: 4) It seems that during the three decades of this party's life, this party has been successful in the quality of implementing its strategies.
Conclusion
Finally, the analysis of the political behavior of the Sweden Democrat party and the social conditions of the Swedish society indicates that it should be expected that the Sweden Democrat party will gradually enter the third period of its party behavior strategy, i.e. the period of power-seeking party behavior; Although it faces major obstacles to enter this period, one of the obstacles is the members of the coalition government, especially the Swedish liberals. Another obstacle is losing the position of the opposition; By being in the position of the opposition, the Sweden Democrat party can better follow the two strategies of vote and policy-seeking, but by being in the position of seeking power, it loses its most important position and strategy; It means influencing the sources of political power. At the same time, this party has strong facilitators and incentives, including members of this party and members separated from other Swedish parties who want this party to take power, on the one hand, and Swedish contexts, including nationalist tendencies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Sweden Democrats
• Sweden
• Immigration
• Scandinavia
• Elections
• Vote