اینترنت و انقلاب خاموش جوانان در خاورمیانه

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار علوم سیاسی دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

«انقلاب خاموش» اصطلاحی است که در ارتباط با تغییر و تحولات تدریجی در عرصه فکری ـ نگرشی و باورهای سیاسی به‌کار رفته است، این انقلاب می‌تواند منجر به کنش‌های سیاسی اعتراضی و انقلاب سیاسی و اجتماعی گردد. هدف از انجام این پژوهش، تحلیل تاثیر اینترنت بر شکل‌گیری انقلاب خاموش ارزشی ـ نگرشی و وقوع بهار عربی در چارچوب نظریه رونالد اینگلهارت است. پرسش پژوهش آن است که: مهم‌ترین عامل موثر بر بروز انقلاب خاموش در جوانان شهری و تحصیلکردگان خاورمیانه عربی در دو دهه اخیر چه بوده است؟ پیامد چنین انقلابی، در ساحت رفتاری یا کنشی چه بوده است؟ فرضیه تحقیق: بدون آن‌که تاثیر تحول در نظام آموزشی نادیده گرفته شود، باید گفت که از نیمه دوم دهه 2000 به این‌سو، افزایش دسترسی و استفاده از اینترنت منجر به شکل‌گیری انقلاب خاموش در ساحت ارزشی ـ نگرشی و فکری و در ساحت رفتاری به تشدید کنش‌های اعتراضی در فضای سایبری و غیر سایبری و بهار عربی شد. روش تحقیق از نوع تبیینی ـ علی و تحلیلی است. با استفاده از داده‌های پیمایش‌های ارزشی و نگرشی انجام شده توسط مراکز پژوهشی منطقه‌ای و مطالعات کمی انجام شده، در این پژوهش این نتیجه حاصل شد که اینترنت در بیش از یک دهه اخیر تا حد زیادی بر سپهر نگرشی و ارزشی و نیز سپهر رفتاری جوانان شهری و تحصیلکردگان تاثیرگذار بوده است؛ اما این نتیجه در مورد توده‌های بی‌سواد و کم‌سواد تایید نمی‌گردد لذا در تحلیل تاثیر اینترنت، متغیر نظام آموزشی متحول به‌عنوان متغیر زمینه‌ای ـ که مفروض گرفته شده ـ را نمی‌توان نادیده گرفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Internet and Youth’s Silent Revolution in the Middle East Khalil

نویسنده [English]

  • Khalil Sardarnia
Associate Professor, Department of Political Sciences, Shiraz University
چکیده [English]

Purpose: The aim of this research is the analysis of internet’s impact on shaping silent revolution in Middle East and then, occurrence of Arab spring in the context of this revolution in framework of Ingelhart theory. By attention to this aim, the author has tried to give quantitative and analytical answer to this question: what is the most important factor on shaping of silent revolution in urban and educated youth in the Middle East from 2000s onward? What is the behavioral repercussion of this revolution? Without denying the impact of development in educational system as control variable, the hypothesis in this research is that the increasing of availability and using internet from the second half of 2000s decade onward has been led to shaping of silent revolution in attitude dimension and then, in shaping and intensification of protest actions in cyber and non-cyber sphere and Arab spring at behavioral one. By attention to these socio-political circumstances, The Middle East region has been the focus attention of mass media, analysts and public opinion in the world.
Design/Methodology/Approach: This paper is formed and based on causal-analytical explanative method and secondary analysis of data by using of attitude-value survey data from regional and world research centers.
Findings: The result of this research is that in more than one last decade, internet has been much efficient on the changing of urban and educated youth at value-attitude and behavioral dimensions in Middle East. This change can be named as silent revolution. But this result cannot be verified for illiterate or little literate masses, so we cannot deny the impact of educational system as a field or control variable that has been hypothesized in this research. Findings of this research show that without these value/attitude developments and changes, we couldn’t see the last political protests in this region. Of course, it is so soon that these protests are named as a revolution. But by extension of these changes in value and behavioral dimensions and other requirements in future, probably we will see the development toward to real revolution. At present time in the context of attitude and awareness changing, the urban and educated youth acts as the important actor in socio-political sphere of Middle East.
Originality/Value: The silent revolution is an idiom that has been used for changes in socio-political values and beliefs. This revolution can be an introduction or incitement for political protest and socio-political developments. The present research is new due to reasons such as: absence of direct research with this title, application of the theory of silent revolution, using world and regional value survey centers and then, making relation between value and awareness changes and political protests in Middle East and North Africa in the last decade. In this research, it has been tried to test a fulfilled theory in west Europe but now in a different region.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Middle East
  • Silent Revolution
  • intellectual-attitude changes
  • Arab Spring

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