1. Introduction
The failure of the idea of a minimal state, which had been considered since the early 1970s and whose inefficiency had become more apparent than ever, especially for developing countries, at the beginning of the 1980s, led to the idea of an efficient state once again attracting the attention of theorists and the concept of "state capacity" being considered, which focuses solely on the capability and efficiency of the state and is defined as the ability of the state to achieve its goals. Studying state capacity in Iran is necessary in this respect because, in addition to the dependence of development processes on state capacity, Iran's historical experience shows that the state has always faced structural challenges such as dependence on oil revenues, weakness in the tax system, institutional fragility, etc. Given these conditions, a systematic analysis of state capacity can help clarify the strengths and weaknesses of Iran's governance structure. Accordingly, the trend of state capacity in Iran will be examined to answer two questions:
Research Question(s)
What has been the trend of state capacity in Iran?
Which of the Iranian states has performed better in terms of state capacity?

2. Literature Review
Hanson and Sigman (2021), reviewing various definitions, defined state capacity as the ability of a state to perform the main functions that are usually considered essential for modern states: protection against external threats, maintaining internal order, and administering and providing the basic infrastructure necessary to maintain economic activity and extract revenue. They also focused on two conditions to introduce indicators for measuring state capacity: 1) they are necessary for carrying out the tasks of contemporary states and 2) they are reasonably distinct from each other. Emphasizing these two conditions, they introduced three dimensions for measuring state capacity: extractive capacity, coercive capacity, and administrative capacity.
Accordingly, the conceptual model of the present study was designed based on Hanson and Sigman's theoretical framework, which considers state capacity as a composite indicator consisting of the three extractive, coercive, and administrative dimensions. In this model, each dimension is measured with a set of quantitative indicators, and finally a composite index of state capacity is calculated. This model, by considering the overlap and interaction between the three dimensions, allows for a comprehensive and multidimensional analysis of state capacity in Iran. It is expected that improving each of these dimensions will lead to improving the overall state capacity and that the relationship between these dimensions will be synergistic, such that high levels of extractive and coercive capacity will pave the way for the development of administrative capacity and vice versa.
3. Methodology
The time series technique has been used to examine the trend of state capacity in Iran in the period 1989-2024; Time series are of great importance in political science and policy-making, because they establish a link between the past and the future and, using patterns and sequences of past events, provide a picture of the longitudinal trends of the issues under study. This process includes continuous or discrete quantitative data that are related to specific moments in time and are examined in statistical studies of their distribution.
To determine the best performance among the states in the period of interest, which includes five states, the technique of comparing means has been used; the test used is the comparison of means of independent groups. In this test, the difference between variables can be generalized and compared if it has a state of similarity with its own group and distinction with other groups.
4. Results
The composite index of state capacity, affected by the downward trend of its three constituent indicators, has had a cyclical and downward trend: the improvement in the initial part encountered the unfavorable situation in 1991 and then reached its best state with an upward trend; but the downward trend continued continuously after 1998, causing the index to be downward in the time series to appear. It is necessary to also consider the fluctuation caused by the Corona pandemic in 2020, which has caused an increase in the downward trend in the end of the time series.
In summary, the answer to the first research question regarding the trend of state capacity in Iran (1989 to 2024) is that state capacity in Iran has had a cyclical downward trend, meaning that there have been numerous ups and downs in the time series of state capacity in Iran, but the downward trends have been more than the upward trends, and for this reason, state capacity in Iran has been declining during the period studied.
Also, based on the average composite index of state capacity, which is the result of the performance of the states under review during their presidential terms, the Eslahat state had the best performance with an average of 58 and was ranked first alone. The two Mehr and Sazandegi states were ranked second with similar averages and their performance was similar to each other. The Etidal state was ranked third, and the Mardomi state was ranked last, which recorded the lowest performance in state capacity.
5. Discussion
According to the theoretical framework of the research, the capacity of the state in Iran has been challenged simultaneously from three aspects: insufficient financial resources (extractive capacity) that have been affected by sanctions, the decline in coercive capacity, which means a decrease in the state's ability to manage social conflicts and prevent hostilities among citizens, and finally, weakness in professional bureaucracy and policy implementation (administrative capacity). This situation shows that the main problem is not simply a lack of revenue or administrative inefficiency, but rather a vicious cycle is forming that has weakened the three dimensions simultaneously. The continuation of this trend could lead to a decrease in the state's ability to achieve development goals, increased social dissatisfaction, and a greater fragility of the governance system.
6. Conclusion
The results of the study confirm that state capacity is a multidimensional and dynamic phenomenon whose dimensions interact and reinforce each other. Extractive capacity is a prerequisite for strengthening coercive and administrative capacity, and without sufficient financial resources, it is not possible to maintain security, effectively manage the territory, and provide public services. Appropriate administrative capacity can also increase the legitimacy of the state and increase the efficiency of using extracted resources.
These results have important implications for policymaking. It seems that the main priority for improving state capacity in Iran should focus on reforming the tax structure, reducing dependence on oil, strengthening professional bureaucratic institutions, and creating accountability and transparency mechanisms. In addition, improving coercive capacity requires combining the effectiveness of security tools with mechanisms of persuasion and social participation in order to maintain political order and stability at the lowest social cost. Finally, returning to the path of improving state capacity in Iran requires a comprehensive and coordinated look at the three extractive, coercive, and administrative dimensions and designing policies that strengthen these dimensions simultaneously.