Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Morteza Shokri ¹
• ُSeyed Jalal Dehghani Firouz Abadi ²

¹ Assistant Professor, Faculty of Eco Collage of Insurance, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.

² Professor, Department of International Relations, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Introduction
In the contemporary era, the convergence of ecological vulnerabilities and geopolitical isolation has confronted states with unprecedented existential and security challenges. The Islamic Republic of Iran, with over 80% of its territory located in the global arid and semi-arid belt, is highly exposed to the consequences of climate change, recurrent droughts, and water stress (IPCC, 2023). However, beyond climatic damage, a decisive macro-variable that has accelerated and deepened this crisis is the imposition of comprehensive economic sanctions. In contemporary International Political Economy (IPE), environmental crises are no longer viewed as isolated phenomena but are deeply intertwined with geopolitical turbulence and sanction policies. Under this turbulent context, the imposition of extensive sanctions has transformed the internal dynamics of governance in Iran.
Research Question(s)
The central question of this research is: How do international sanctions affect the role, function, and approach of the state in Iran's environmental governance and security system? Furthermore, what are the primary drivers shaping the future of this interaction?
Literature Review
A critical review of existing literature reveals that previous studies on the consequences of sanctions on Iran have mainly focused on two primary trends. The first trend, with an economy-oriented approach, has dissected the macroeconomic consequences of sanctions, such as financial contraction, structural inflation, and infrastructure depreciation (Dizaji & Farzanegan, 2021). The second trend examines the ecological consequences of sanctions, showing how isolation leads to restrictions on the transfer of green technologies and a reduction in conservation budgets (Madani, 2021). Despite this literary richness, a "theoretical gap" remains in explaining the mechanisms of political economy regarding the state's institutional transformation. Previous research has often considered the state as a "passive variable," neglecting the structural change in the "state's institutional function" under the logic of survival.
2.1. The Geopolitics of Sanctions and Environmental Security
Sanctions are not merely external shocks but structural catalysts that redefine the logic of resource allocation and sovereign behavior (Early, 2015).
2.1.1. Security Priority Displacement
In states under pressure, the "future discount rate" increases significantly. The state, in an emergency, values today's survival far more than tomorrow's sustainability. This leads to the displacement of ecological stability by immediate economic resilience.
Methodology
This study employs a mixed-methods approach within a qualitative framework based on "Structured Horizon Scanning." To ensure the validity and reproducibility of the research, the implementation process was carried out in three main steps:

Systematic Review: 42 core policy documents and scientific articles (2015-2026) were collected.
Thematic Analysis: The data were coded using MAXQDA 2024 software through open, axial, and selective coding.
Delphi Technique: Findings and drivers were validated through a two-round Delphi panel consisting of 12 experts in IPE, environmental policy, and national security.

Results
The findings indicate that the structural pressures of sanctions have shifted the state’s institutional function from an "ecological regulatory entity" to a "state reliant on domestic ecological rents." Through thematic coding, three critical drivers were identified:
Table 1
Ranking of Environmental Governance Drivers Based on Delphi Consensus
Driver Title          Impact Score      Uncertainty Score            IQR         Rank
Import Substitution & Natural Capital Dissolution              9.15        7.50        0.75        1
Institutional Retreat & Structural Deregulation   8.60        8.00        0.80        2
Tech-Isolation Trap & Adaptation Blockage           8.20        9.00        1.10        3
*Note. Scores are based on a 1-10 Likert scale.
The results suggest that international sanctions have activated a "burden-shifting" mechanism. The state, as a rational actor seeking to maximize system survival, has inevitably turned to the intensive extraction of "ecological rents" to compensate for lost oil revenues.
Discussion
The discussion highlights that the increasing degradation of Iran's environment is a systematic output of a "survival-based political economy." When a state is under commercial siege, "food security" is promoted from a welfare concern to an existential issue. In this paradigm, the policymaker sacrifices the sustainability of aquifers for short-term social cohesion.
Furthermore, the "Strategic Deregulation" identified in industrial development shows that environmental regulatory bodies have lost their veto power to economic ministries. The "Environmental Impact Assessment" (EIA) standards have become flexible or suspended to facilitate revenue-generating projects. Finally, the "Technological Isolation Trap" has led to "Carbon Lock-in," where industries are forced to use inefficient, high-emission equipment due to blocked access to international climate funds like GEF and GCF.
Conclusion
The study concludes that under the pressure of international sanctions, the Iranian state has systematically converted economic costs into "ecological debts." This process, while ensuring short-term economic resilience, confronts national security and territorial sustainability with irreversible crises in the long term. Strategic recommendations include:

Redefining food security through "Virtual Water Trade."
Promoting the institutional independence of environmental regulatory bodies.
Activating "Environmental Diplomacy" to decouple ecological issues from geopolitical tensions.

Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the Iran National Science Foundation (INSF) under Post-doctoral Grant No. 99020087.
Notes

EIA: Environmental Impact Assessment
IPE: International Political Economy

Keywords

• International political economy
• Economic sanctions
• Environmental governance
• Ecological rent
• Ecological debt
• Future studies

Main Subjects

• International Relations