Economic
Aboulfazl Delavari; Elahe Mohammadi Pirouzian
Abstract
knoondd ,mbkscnlsnsolnsli odhbasb kdk as kdsad kdbkdqwbckcb lqwdhbfc bk qwdqbc dwqhba lhwd dqohqb d dohqb cifefd d qwohdaw a dhasd dqws bcbc dqwhbsd dwolhwqb s khdwad as dwqhdbdw d mkhqbd d dhbw wh wdqwhbd dkwd wqk dwe woqwhd whqwl ddqw dbqw dw wib wqiw dhqwbd d hdhdw kbwidw dbkkq dqwqdw dwhd dqwwb bqwb ...
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knoondd ,mbkscnlsnsolnsli odhbasb kdk as kdsad kdbkdqwbckcb lqwdhbfc bk qwdqbc dwqhba lhwd dqohqb d dohqb cifefd d qwohdaw a dhasd dqws bcbc dqwhbsd dwolhwqb s khdwad as dwqhdbdw d mkhqbd d dhbw wh wdqwhbd dkwd wqk dwe woqwhd whqwl ddqw dbqw dw wib wqiw dhqwbd d hdhdw kbwidw dbkkq dqwqdw dwhd dqwwb bqwb wq kdwkbw dqwkbkb wd bkwqhdbd d awdbd wdbqw d sabdk dbwdk d wwqb kbwq dbwsb d, asbbdd s s wkd d wb wdw w bkwkb s bwks m s wlwb w wbkwbk w wbwb w bwsb basb skd ss b d, dsbdb s w ewbds s cbskcc w bkd s sbsks s wb bk.wkb w w dbkbkjdw d d wb dbkk wsd dwwsbwmdsam ddbd knoondd ,mbkscnlsnsolnsli odhbasb kdk as kdsad kdbkdqwbckcb lqwdhbfc bk qwdqbc dwqhba lhwd dqohqb d dohqb cifefd d qwohdaw a dhasd dqws bcbc dqwhbsd dwolhwqb s khdwad as dwqhdbdw d mkhqbd d dhbw wh wdqwhbd dkwd wqk dwe woqwhd whqwl ddqw dbqw dw wib wqiw dhqwbd d hdhdw kbwidw dbkkq dqwqdw dwhd dqwwb bqwb wq kdwkbw dqwkbkb wd bkwqhdbd d awdbd wdbqw d sabdk dbwdk d wwqb kbwq dbwsb d, asbbdd s s wkd d wb wdw w bkwkb s bwks m s wlwb w wbkwbk w wbwb w bwsb basb skd ss b d, dsbdb s w ewbds s cbskcc w bkd s sbsks s wb bk.wkb w w dbkbkjdw d d wb dbkk wsd dwwsbwmdsam ddbd knoondd ,mbkscnlsnsolnsli odhbasb kdk as kdsad kdbkdqwbckcb lqwdhbfc bk qwdqbc dwqhba lhwd dqohqb d dohqb cifefd d qwohdaw a dhasd dqws bcbc dqwhbsd dwolhwqb s khdwad as dwqhdbdw d mkhqbd d dhbw wh wdqwhbd dkwd wqk dwe woqwhd whqwl ddqw dbqw dw wib wqiw dhqwbd d hdhdw kbwidw dbkkq dqwqdw dwhd dqwwb bqwb wq kdwkbw dqwkbkb wd bkwqhdbd d awdbd wdbqw d sabdk dbwdk d wwqb kbwq dbwsb d, asbbdd s s wkd d wb wdw w bkwkb s bwks m s wlwb w wbkwbk w wbwb w bwsb basb skd ss b d, dsbdb s w ewbds s cbskcc w bkd s sbsks s wb bk.wkb w w dbkbkjdw d d wb dbkk wsd dwwsbwmdsam knoondd ,mbkscnlsnsolnsli odhbasb kdk as kdsad kdbkdqwbckcb lqwdhbfc bk qwdqbc dwqhba lhwd dqohqb d dohqb cifefd d qwohdaw a dhasd dqws bcbc dqwhbsd dwolhwqb s khdwad as dwqhdbdw d mkhqbd d dhbw wh wdqwhbd dkwd wqk dwe woqwhd whqwl ddqw dbqw dw wib wqiw dhqwbd d hdhdw kbwidw dbkkq dqwqdw dwhd dqwwb bqwb wq kdwkbw dqwkbkb wd bkwqhdbd d awdbd wdbqw d sabdk dbwdk d wwqb kbwq dbwsb d, asbbdd s s wkd d wb wdw w bkwkb s bwks m s wlwb w wbkwbk w wbwb w bwsb basb skd ss b d, dsbdb s w ewbds s cbskcc w bkd s sbsks s wb bk.wkb w w dbkbkjdw d d wb dbkk wsd dwwsbwmdsam knoondd ,mbkscnlsnsolnsli odhbasb kdk as kdsad kdbkdqwbckcb lqwdhbfc bk qwdqbc dwqhba lhwd dqohqb d dohqb cifefd d qwohdaw a dhasd dqws bcbc dqwhbsd dwolhwqb s khdwad as dwqhdbdw d mkhqbd d dhbw wh wdqwhbd dkwd wqk dwe woqwhd whqwl ddqw dbqw dw wib wqiw dhqwbd d hdhdw kbwidw dbkkq dqwqdw dwhd dqwwb bqwb wq kdwkbw dqwkbkb wd bkwqhdbd d awdbd wdbqw d sabdk dbwdk d wwqb kbwq dbwsb d, asbbdd s s wkd d wb wdw w bkwkb s bwks m s wlwb w wbkwbk w wbwb w bwsb basb skd ss b d, dsbdb s w ewbds s cbskcc w bkd s sbsks s wb bk.wkb w w dbkbkjdw d d wb dbkk wsd dwwsbwmdsam knoondd ,mbkscnlsnsolnsli odhbasb kdk as kdsad kdbkdqwbckcb lqwdhbfc bk qwdqbc dwqhba lhwd dqohqb d dohqb cifefd d qwohdaw a dhasd dqws bcbc dqwhbsd dwolhwqb s khdwad as dwqhdbdw d mkhqbd d dhbw wh wdqwhbd dkwd wqk dwe woqwhd whqwl ddqw dbqw dw wib wqiw dhqwbd d hdhdw kbwidw dbkkq dqwqdw dwhd dqwwb bqwb wq kdwkbw dqwkbkb wd bkwqhdbd d awdbd wdbqw d sabdk dbwdk d wwqb kbwq dbwsb d, asbbdd s s wkd d wb wdw w bkwkb s bwks m s wlwb w wbkwbk w wbwb w bwsb basb skd ss b d, dsbdb s w ewbds s cbskcc w bkd s sbsks s wb bk.wkb w w dbkbkjdw d d wb dbkk wsd dwwsbwmdsam ddbd lhsn , lhd, dlhd
Political Sociology
Aboulfazl Delavari; Negar Ghanavati
Abstract
IntroductionThe state, as one of the most sophisticated social phenomena, has been a central focus of philosophers and scholars for centuries. From ancient times to the present, philosophical reflections and empirical research have produced an extensive and rich body of literature on the nature, typology, ...
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IntroductionThe state, as one of the most sophisticated social phenomena, has been a central focus of philosophers and scholars for centuries. From ancient times to the present, philosophical reflections and empirical research have produced an extensive and rich body of literature on the nature, typology, structures, functions, and evolution of the state. Despite numerous forward-looking studies—whether examining the state as a general form of social organization or in its various manifestations across different societies and countries—it remains a vital area of inquiry that has consistently been on the research agenda. However, the related studies have largely adhered to conventional scientific approaches, such as positivism and interpretivism. While these methods have yielded valuable insights, they are often doomed to have been heavily influenced by ideological tendencies or theoretical preferences, leading to results that are not always accurate and desirable. As a different line of inquiry, the present research aimed to assess the appropriateness of causal layered analysis (CLA) for future studies of the state, hoping to capture its complex dimensions, characteristics, and transformations. As an effective analytical method, CLA has gained popularity in the Iranian scholarly community in recent years. However, the related studies sometimes display misunderstandings and oversimplifications in both the introduction and application of the method. In some cases, the ontological and methodological distinctions between the four layers of CLA are not properly considered, and the method is neither accurately presented nor applied. There are also instances where CLA is mentioned only in the title, while other methods are used in the body of the research. To address these shortcomings, the present study aimed to introduce CLA, highlight its distinct features and capabilities compared to other approaches in future studies and demonstrate its suitability for future studies of the state. The main research question is, how suitable is CLA for future studies of the state? The study also sought to address three sub-questions as follows: What are the components and techniques of CLA? How does CLA differ from other methods in future studies? And what capacities does CLA offer for future studies of the state?Materials and MethodsAs a descriptive inquiry, the current study intended to provide a detailed explanation of CLA, while also exploring the general characteristics of contemporary states. Additionally, it examined the appropriateness of applying CLA to futures studies of the state. The data was collected from scientific documents, including books and articles, and analyzed through an inferential approach.Results and DiscussionCLA was proposed to address the inadequacies of both evidential and interpretive approaches. It is based on the premise that human and social phenomena are highly complex, requiring at least four layers of investigation for a comprehensive understanding. The first layer, known as the litany, consists of the surface-level, everyday aspects of these phenomena, manifested in tangible dimensions and quantitative data. The second layer (the structural or systemic) covers more stable and general factors, including institutions, arrangements, and socioeconomic and political relations. The third is the discourse layer involving dominant worldviews and mentalities. Finally, the fourth layer (myths/metaphors) concerns the unconscious rooted in archetypes and myths. In CLA, each of these layers should be examined using a method appropriate to its nature. The first and second layers, being more objective, require objective data, quantitative methods, and statistical or structural analysis. In contrast, the third and fourth layers, which are more subjective, require qualitative data, interpretive strategies, and semantic analyses. Addressing all four dimensions and layers simultaneously, CLA has a great capacity for understanding both the current status and the objective and subjective factors influencing states' future, whether in general or within specific societies. The method offers a key advantage by encouraging researchers to move beyond one macro narrative to several different narratives, leading to a deeper and more reliable understanding of complex, multi-layered phenomena like political systems and states.ConclusionThe application of CLA can offer valuable insights into the state's direction, trends, and prospects. However, this method primarily addresses broad prospective studies and lacks specific techniques and tools for depicting accurate scenarios of possible, probable, and preferable futures. To address this gap, it is essential to use complementary methods such as retrospection, morphology, and trend research, in conjunction with future thinking techniques like driver analysis, visioning, and scenario building.
Political Sociology
Abolfazl Delavari; Mohammad Rahbari
Abstract
Rouhani’s promises and programs in the twelfth presidential election created a lot of expectations, especially among his supporters. However, after the victory, he confronted the frustration of many of his supporters and the dissatisfaction of many social groups. The question is how and by what ...
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Rouhani’s promises and programs in the twelfth presidential election created a lot of expectations, especially among his supporters. However, after the victory, he confronted the frustration of many of his supporters and the dissatisfaction of many social groups. The question is how and by what factors this situation was created and what were the consequences. In this article, this question is answered based on an extended model of the theory of "relative deprivation" and by exploring the data available in cyberspace along with the documentary data. The findings of the article demonstrate that the second Rouhani's second administration, on the one hand, had created a high volume of expectations and demands, and on the other hand, from the first days of its establishment, faced increasing restrictions on the fulfillment of these expectations and demands. These constraints are due to several factors. Rising pressure from rival forces and institutions during the arrangement of the cabinet, the withdrawal of US from JCPOA and the escalation of sanctions and inconsistent and contradictory policies of the government, especially in the monetary and budgeting context, were among the most important factors. These factors have deepened the economic crisis, raised inflation, unemployment and poverty, and concerns of the lower and middle classes. This situation provoked a chain of social and political protests in the real world and in cyberspace, especially from January 2018 to August 2018. Although the protests were suppressed, they created political distrust and severe frustration among various groups over the Rouhani government's ability.
Abolfazl Delavari
Abstract
Problem: The continuation and increasing intensification of the Contentious politics in contemporary Iran, which is an endless revolutions chain, coups, movements, uprisings, and political rebellions, have shown questions about the grounds and roots of this type of politics. In existing studies, the ...
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Problem: The continuation and increasing intensification of the Contentious politics in contemporary Iran, which is an endless revolutions chain, coups, movements, uprisings, and political rebellions, have shown questions about the grounds and roots of this type of politics. In existing studies, the roots of political conflicts in Iran have been attributed either to the state or social cleavages. As far as the role of the state is concerned, it is usually focused on its structural aspects. This article omits the discussion about the structure of the state and focuses only on the functioning of the stateQuestion: The question of the article is: What is the relationship between the continuation and intensification of Contentious politics in contemporary Iran with the practical priorities and orientations of the state in different periods of the contemporary Iranian history?Hypothesis: The hypothesis of the article is that the continuation and intensification of the Contentious politics has been caused by the imbalances and crises caused by the practical priorities and orientations of the state in different periods of contemporary Iranian history. Method: In this article, the method of secondary analysis of historical data is used. Based on the data available in the historical sources, first, the process of the state's performance and priorities in different periods of contemporary history have been identified. Second, the process of accumulation of conflicts and conflicts arising from these performance and priorities has been shown. Third, the relationship between the two mentioned trends is shown. Finally, by using the "ideal type" method, an attempt has been made to design and present a model of the state, which seems to be able to reverse the process of conflict politics in Iran and lead to reconciliation politics.Findings: The findings of the research indicate that over the last two centuries, five different models of state (in terms of orientation and performance) have been effective, which are: self-rebuilding state, nation-building state, developmental state, redistributor state and expansionist state. Of course, this does not mean that the ruling states have only one of these functions at any time; Rather, there has often been some kind of overlap in two or three functions, but at each point, one orientation and function has been the priority and focus of the state's attention. "Self-rebuilding state" appeared in a defective and discrete form during the Qajar era, but in a serious and effective way in the first decade of Reza shah’s rule (1921-40). The "nation-building state" also emerged weakly in the years after the constitutional movement, but seriously and effectively in the last decade of the Reza shah’s rule (1931-41). "Developmental state" emerged faintly in the second decade of Reza shah’s rule (1931-41), and seriously and effectively in the last fifteen years of Mohammad Reza shah’s rule (1962-78), and in the years after The Islamic revolution also took place in some periods such as the presidency of Rafsanjani (1989-96). The "redistributive state" appeared faintly in the last fifteen years of Mohammad Reza shah’s rule (1962-78) and more seriously and effectively in the first decade after the Islamic revolution (1979-88). Finally, the "expansionist state" appeared first in the last years of Mohammad Reza King’s rule (1973-78) and then more seriously and widely in the years after the revolution, especially in the last two decades (2001-2022).Analysis and Discussion: The analysis of the findings of the article showed that: in each of these five models of state, although they had some progress in realizing their main goals and priorities, but in addition to the historical delay in the desired orientation, there were failures in the same orientation. Selecting of the orientations have resulted of disproportionate strategies and policies by each of these states has also created new problems, conflicts and criticisms. In other words, the five patterns of the state have created a vicious cycle of crises, conflicts, instabilities and political violence and a chain of interruptions and breaks in the process of political, social and economic developments and It has resulted in the accumulation of crises in today’s Iran.Conclusion: The results of the article showed that the way out of the current state of Iran is the establishment of a state Patterns that can be called a "conciliatory state". Such a state must first of all emerge from within a comprehensive social contract. Then, based on democratic and efficient institutional arrangements and a coherent legal system, the main priority and goal should be to solve the conflicts affecting the country. This state should accept pluralism and competitive mechanisms in different political, economic, social and cultural fields. This state instead of authoritarian interventions in different fields, should be the guardian of territorial integrity and people's security, and only where the competitive mechanisms face problems with inadequacies and conflict of interest, it should intervene in the framework of democratic laws and mechanisms to compensate for, settle differences and conflicts Resolution, and establish and reproduce social balance and political stability.
Abolfazl Delavari
Abstract
Purpose: Political instability is an issue that has always been attracted attention rulers and scholars. in recent decades to research on this subject has been developed. In Iran, the studies and researches on this topic are increasingly expending. However, this studies and research are not yet accurate ...
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Purpose: Political instability is an issue that has always been attracted attention rulers and scholars. in recent decades to research on this subject has been developed. In Iran, the studies and researches on this topic are increasingly expending. However, this studies and research are not yet accurate and methodically adequate. In additional, descriptive and explanatory theoretical framework or model that applied in this research are very old and inappropriate. For example, in most of these studies Saunders model used to belong to 197o. However, in recent decades has been occurred Significant changes in the socio - political sphere and patterns of political instability in the world. In addition, after revolutionary Iran's political opening and complicated political conflicts have increased the need for this type of studies. This paper is based on the premise that systematic and exact study of political instability require critical encounter with existing literature and to rethink the concepts, indicators, model and tools of measurement and analysis. Therefore the purpose of this article is to describe aspects of political instability.Design/Methodology/Approach: In this article in one hand criticized the concepts and indicators of political instability based on the inductive model (Ideal Type of political stability and instability). On the other hand, attempted to provide clarified concepts and useful indicators for assessing political instability based on the evidences of recent changes in the internal and external political environment. Therefore, in this Article we useful both axiomatic and Quasi experimental Methods.Findings: In this article, distinction political instability from synonym concept and categories such as political dynamic, political changes, political disorder, and political collapse. This article shows that a comprehensive and updated descriptive model of political instability must to be contains not only the indicators of of challenges and changes in Government and political regime but also political leaders and actors Such as rapid changes in political norms, attitudes and policies. Also in this model political instabilities have been separated and classified based on criteria such as type (violent or nonviolent), source (internal or external of polity or country) and target (structures or norms or actors or policies) of destabilizing evidences. And in measurement of level and dimensions of political instability we must attention on severity, extent. and frequency of destabilizing events.Originality/Value: This article concluded that political instability has both objective and subjective aspect. In measuring and explaining of political instability we must consider both of objective factors (such as political perceptions and culture, historical backgrounds and experiences of the political actors) and subjective factor (such as socio economic cleavage and political conflict) . We also must consider the changes and processes such as globalization, virtualization and mediatization of politics.
