تبیین شرایط تکوین بهار عربی و زمینه‌های فروپاشی رژیم‌های سیاسی در تونس و مصر

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار جامعه‌شناسی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

به‌جرات می‌توان گفت که طی دهه گذشته، هیچ منطقه‌ای در جهان به‌ اندازه خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا درگیر تحولات سریع سیاسی و دستخوش آشوب، ناآرامی‌و بی‌ثباتی نبوده است. آغاز دومینوی «اعتراضات توده‌ای ـ بی‌ثباتی سیاسی» در پی شکل‌گیری بهار عربی تنها یکی از آن موارد است. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر تبیین شرایطی است که بهار عربی ‌در آن تکوین یافت. پرسش اساسی پژوهش حاضر آن است که چه عواملی موجب شد تا بهار عربی از تونس و مصر آغاز شود؟ در پژوهش حاضر تلاش می‌شود تا بر اساس رویکردی چند سطحی و چند بعدی، شرایط تکوین و آغاز بهار عربی تبیین شود. فرضیه اصلی پژوهش آن است که شباهت‌هایی میان تونس و مصر وجود داشته که موجب شد تا بهار عربی از‌ این دو کشور و نه از سایر کشورهای خاورمیانه و شمال آفریقا آغاز شود. به‌لحاظ روشی، پژوهش حاضر از نوع پژوهش تطبیقی ـ تاریخی مورد محور است. فرآیند تحقیق در سه مرحله به انجام رسیده است. در مرحله اول شباهت‌های موجود میان دو کشور تونس و مصر استخراج شد. در مرحله دوم ارتباط علّی شباهت‌های استخراج شده میان تونس و مصر در قالب متغیرهای 9 گانه، با شرایط تکوین و وقوع بهار عربی تبیین شد. در مرحله سوم نیز تبیینی عام از شرایط تکوین و وقوع بهار عربی صورت گرفت و نشان داده شد که چرا بهار عربی از تونس و مصر آغاز شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Uprising and Regime Change in the Middle East and North Africa: Explaining the Conditions of the Arab Spring Formation and its Beginning in Tunisia and Egypt

نویسنده [English]

  • Kamran Rabiei Rabiei
Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology,Tarbiat Modares University, Iran
چکیده [English]

It is safe to say that over the past decade, no region in the world as much as the Middle East and North Africa has been involved with rapid political developments, unrest and instability. The beginning of a cycle of mass protests and instability in the aftermath of the Arab Spring is just one of those cases. The main purpose of the present research is to explain the conditions of the Arab Spring formation. The main question of the present research is what caused the Arab Spring to begin with Tunisia and Egypt?
In this research, it is attempted to explain the conditions of development and the beginning of the Arab Spring based on the multilevel and multidimensional approach. The main hypothesis of the study is that there were similarities between Tunisia and Egypt, which caused the Arab Spring to begin from these two countries. In the method, the present study is a case-oriented historical comparative study. The research process has been completed in three phases. In the first stage, the similarities between the two countries of Tunisia and Egypt were extracted. In the second stage, the causal relationship of the similarities extracted between Tunisia and Egypt was described in the form of nine variables, with the conditions of the development and occurrence of the Arab Spring. In the third phase, there was a general explanation of the conditions of the Arab Spring development, and it was shown why the Arab Spring started from Tunisia and Egypt

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Uprising
  • Regime Change
  • Arab Spring
  • Tunisia
  • Egypt
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