Politics and International Relations
Hamid Hakim; Emad Helalat
Abstract
Soft power is a tool utilized by different actors in the evolving international system based on their capabilities. In this transformed international system, soft power becomes a vital element in increasing influence over international outcomes, as it makes it more difficult to coerce countries and non-state ...
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Soft power is a tool utilized by different actors in the evolving international system based on their capabilities. In this transformed international system, soft power becomes a vital element in increasing influence over international outcomes, as it makes it more difficult to coerce countries and non-state actors through traditional hard power tools that mean threats and force.
The People's Republic of China is one of the influential actors in the realm of international relations. Its large economy, ranking second in the world, has enabled the country to utilize its economic power as a tool to advance its goals. According to most experts in the field of economics and international relations, China is projected to surpass the United States as the world's leading economy by 2030 and establish itself as a dominant economic power on the international stage, although Joseph Nye disputes this notion in his book "The Intelligent Power."
Over the past few decades, China's foreign policy has pursued different dimensions and forms of power in the international arena, in line with its domestic environment and international circumstances. China's bitter historical experience in dealing with Western powers and enduring the era of humiliation, as well as the ideological components stemming from the Communist revolution, shaped its foreign policy during Mao's era with a strong hardware-oriented approach to power and a focus on win-lose dynamics. With the emergence of Deng Xiaoping, China's foreign policy outlook shifted towards a process of power acquisition and security enhancement. Since the 1990s, significant changes have occurred in China's domestic and international conditions, as the emphasis solely on one dimension of power made the country vulnerable to long-term interests. It was in the mid-1990s that soft power gained a special position in China's foreign policy. Jiang Zemin believed that due to various internal and international reasons, China had to incorporate new dimensions of power, including soft power, into its agenda to change its position and ensure security.
Among the influential regions targeted by China, which shares over 1,800 kilometers of border with it, is Central Asia. This geographical proximity has fostered economic, political, and even cultural links between China and the countries of this region. The historical Silk Road, which originated in China and extended through Central Asia and Iran towards Europe, has strengthened these connections. In this regard, Chinese elites also strive to showcase their soft power on the global stage and in the direction of defeating enemies by utilizing the country's traditional culture, values, and teachings, combined with modern culture.
The main objective of this research is to highlight China's development-oriented policies in the Central Asian region. The significance of this research lies in the fact that Central Asia is considered part of Iran's cultural sphere, and Iranian culture and art have a significant presence in this region. This research adopts a descriptive-analytical approach to answer the question of how the Chinese government employs soft power as a tool for its development ambitions in Central Asia. The article argues that by utilizing its soft power tools in cultural, political, and economic dimensions, the Chinese government influences the countries of the Central Asian region. However, it also faces challenges that hurt its soft power. This research examines the soft power of China, its capacities, tools, and challenges by addressing the concept of soft power and the Chinese government's utilization of it in Central Asia.
Based on this, the research is structured into three main sections. The first section provides an overview and theoretical framework of the research. The second section explores China's soft power in Central Asia, including the existing tools and capacities of the Chinese government in this domain. The third section discusses the challenges faced by the Chinese government in leveraging its soft power.
Considering that the main question of the research was how the Chinese government uses soft power as a tool for its expansionist ambitions in Central Asia, it is argued in this research that the Chinese government influences the countries of Central Asia through its soft power tools in cultural, political, and economic dimensions. However, it faces challenges such as the presence of regional and extra-regional powers (such as the United States, Russia, and India), Islamic fundamentalism, and cultural unattractiveness, which hurt its soft power. It can be concluded that China has been able to introduce itself as an influential variable in this region through its economic relations with Central Asian countries, both through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and other frameworks. China has attempted to exert its influence on the development and progress of these countries by tying their economies to their own, creating consumer and transit markets, and utilizing the energy resources available in these countries. The Chinese government has placed economic tools as the foundation of its global and regional movements, particularly in Central Asia. In the cultural sphere, despite scholarships for students and the promotion of the Chinese language and Confucian culture, different perspectives, especially in neighboring countries, indicate that Russia and the United States have a relatively more desirable position in terms of China's soft power and influence. In the political sphere, there is authoritarianism in Central Asian countries, similar to China, but civil society and the general public in Central Asia do not find China's soft power politically appealing and prefer the liberal democracy model of the United States. Despite China's efforts to achieve its goals through initiatives such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Belt and Road Initiative, it faces challenges that have affected these initiatives. Russia considers Central Asia its domain and China's presence and influence in this region pass through Russia's channel. The United States identifies China as the biggest threat to its national security and seeks to have an influential presence in the region as an international player. Islamic fundamentalism (terrorism) is another challenge for China. The presence of Chinese semi-military forces in Syria in the form of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and their return to Central Asia and China, creating security crises, makes Central Asian countries a potential center of terrorism in the future. Overall, it can be stated that despite all the progress China has made in this region, the existence of these challenges has affected China's soft power.
The State
Mazaher Ziaei
Abstract
Background and ContextNumerous studies have indicated that the state instability existence in past of countries has not only delayed their development but also influenced their current level of development. The study of political instability in the Eurasian region during the agricultural era (3000 BC ...
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Background and ContextNumerous studies have indicated that the state instability existence in past of countries has not only delayed their development but also influenced their current level of development. The study of political instability in the Eurasian region during the agricultural era (3000 BC to 1600 AD) encompasses a significant portion of the history and the contemporary world geography. It can serve as a basis for examining political instability in the history of Iran. Many scholars have considered the proximity to the Central Asian nomadic societies as one of the factors contributing to instability in Eurasian countries. Some of them argue that the history of these tribes' interactions with neighboring regions forms the core of Eurasian history. There are also a limited number of quantitative studies that have encompassed various aspects of these tribes impacts on neighboring communities. There have been numerous studies on the effects of these tribes on Iran as well, but none of them have covered this temporal and geographical scope.Objective of the ResearchThe main objective of this research is to investigate political instability in Eurasia, particularly in Iran, during the agricultural era. It focuses on the Central Asian nomadic influence tribes on the creation of political instability in Eurasia. The research utilizes this framework of interactions and gathered information to periodize political instability in the history of Iran.Research MethodologyIn this study, political instability is perceived as a low average lifespan of states and a high coefficient of variations (standard deviation-to-mean ratio). The study considers Continental Eurasia (including Europe and Asia, excluding their islands) as the studied region and the agricultural era 3000 BC to 1600 AD as the studied period. To assess the timing and extent of Central Asian tribes' influence on political instability in Eurasian states, a total of 432 Eurasian states in the study period were identified. Subsequently, the time and extent of Central Asian tribes' impact on political instability were examined by applying three categorizations to these states: 1) Regional categorization based on the importance of the region each government could have for Central Asian tribes, dividing into Central Asia, unimportant region, less important region, and highly important region. 2) Since the period of significant influence of these tribes on Eurasian developments occurred between 500 BC and 1600 AD, states that existed before 500 BC were classified as belonging to the first period, while others belonged to the second period. 3) By combining the previous two categorizations, the states were grouped into four categories: (I)Central Asian states, (II)unattractive states, (III)low unattractive states, and (IV) highly unattractive states.Descriptive analysis, Two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (KS2), and categorical regression were used for data analysis and inference.FindingsThe findings regarding regional categorization show the significant differences in the lifespan of states among regions. The average lifespan of states in unimportant regions is more than 3.5 times that of highly important regions, and the coefficient of variation for highly important regions is higher than for other regions. Regression results confirm the model and regression coefficients validity, indicating that this four-group categorization explains 29% of the variations among states.Statistical analysis demonstrates a significant difference in the mean lifespan of states between these two periods. Specifically, the average lifespan of states in the first period in the Region Two, a significant region, is nearly eight times higher than the states in second period of that region. Additionally, the lifespan of states, particularly in Iran, has decreased during the agricultural era.These analyses also reveal significant differences in the average lifespan of states within the categorized groups, with coefficient determination of 0.429. The mentioned item indicates that this model accounts for a significant portion of the variations in the lifespan of the examined states.Moreover, Iran's status in terms of the number, average lifespan, and coefficient of variation of states is examined within different groupings, and the KS2 test confirms that Iran's belonging to specific groups and the irconcordance lack of other groups, except for its concordance with Central Asia.Several supplementary studies on Chinese history, the timing of the beginning and end of the agricultural era, and the period of Central Asian tribes' influence provide further support for the stability of the results.ConclusionThe statistical analysis results show an inverse relationship between the average states lifespan and the level of threat from Central Asia in various categories of states. Evidently, the agricultural-era states' political instability was significantly affected by the invasions of Central Asian tribes. The four-group categorization explains approximately 43% of the variation in states’ lifespans. Notably, this level of explanation is achieved with only four categorical variables.Regarding Iran, the findings indicate that the political instability of Iranian agricultural-era states was also influenced by interactions with Central Asian tribes. The periodization of Iranian history can be established as mentioned bellow:(up to 600), (600 to 1000), (1000 to 1250), and (1250 onwards), with distinct events in the second period onwards attributed to Central Asian tribes, such as the emergence of the Seljuks and the Mongol invasions. The results demonstrate that political instability in Iran was higher than the average for other regions, with an average government lifespan of 90 years during the fourth period, which lasted for approximately 550 years, slightly exceeding the average lifespan of a human today.
